The pitfalls of a bettor... stop chasing losses!

As you know, I've been developing a football strat, it looks promising, but every now and again, as expected you make a loss and you cash it out 'cut your losses, but let your profits run'.

However, I'm making simple mistakes that are costing me large sums of money, and to be honest, it's damaging the integrity of my key performance indicator for the strat. I'm chasing up losses. Why?

But first, let me tell you what's happening. 

So my strategy has a win rate of around 65-70%, The general consensus that has been developed is that you will get losses, but its ok, because, in the long run, you'll make a profit. 

But some stupid neanderthal part of me is chasing those losses even though they are accounted for. Tonight I was using £200 to roll over on different matches that started and finished at different times. As the last match came in I could see that the bank was up by about £37.  Crucially I was telling myself that this is too high and was expecting it to be around £20 anyway. However, the last game did not come to fruition. not a major loss at around £6, and still above predictions. Yet some part of me was gutted. So gutted in fact that I began putting additional bets on to try and cover the losses. I was trying to come out with a full house of green.

One thing led to another and before I knew it I had gambled the whole £200 away. 

I'm writing this now, I need to write down how I was feeling during the process. What was going through my mind?

Wanting to win

Fear that the strat won't work, I'm trying to cover losses. Which is just ridiculous. It's so counter-intuitive. If it doesn't work then 'covering it up' doesn't help me at all. This is genuinely my feelings as the games progress. There's a nervous fear, I don't trust the numbers yet as the KPI is early and only has a week of data, 93 games. It's like I'm ecstatic that the strat works and I'm trying to play down any losses. Its how the frikken recession started.

Oh, those losses are going in. Not into the KPI, but they will be there in bold writing, daily P/L's . I need to get this stupid shit out of my head.

Fear of a loss

Again its that lack of trust. As the games progress, fear of the strat not working creeps in, I begin to act irrationally.  I need to identify this and highlight it to myself. I need to know when I'm being irrational

Lack of discipline - Lack of patience - Greed

I want to make money on this strat right now, I'm greedy for it. It's like a red mist that covers my eyes, I green up and see exciting profits. I go into this crazy 'I'm on a winning streak nothing can stop me' mentality. I begin to cut corners on the strategy, don't green up when I should because 'the profits are not good enough' hold positions longer than had been worked out. It's just making me not follow the strat.

I've gone down this path before, the last time I was angry, frustrated and just generally pissed off. That was after losing about £15. This is a lot more, but I'm not pissed off. I need to channel that pent-up energy and just focus on the causes of this slip-up, getting angry will only result in me doing it again. I need more discipline, if nothing will stop me then today's £170 loss should go some way towards it. Perhaps I should see it as an investment.

As you can see, its completely skewered my KPI, so many ludicrous loss chasing bets. I'll have to remove it from this and have an extra row that shows the Overal P/L Including errors and mistakes. It should be in bold red if the numbers are negative because this is just not on.

I think I'll put a post-it note that just says "Trust in the Data and cut your losses" And whenever placing a bet or checking strat criteria, repeat the mantra

Trust in the data, cut your losses

All in all, psychology is a big thing in this game, perhaps my next research project should be on developing the correct mindset for this beautiful bastard.


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